The next market is already built

The next real estate cycle may not emerge from what is yet to be built, but from what already exists.

In Italy, a considerable share of the residential property stock is currently in the hands of older owners and, over the coming years, will be affected by a gradual generational transfer.

According to recent analyses of data from the Italian Revenue Agency and ISTAT, reported by Il Sole 24 Ore, the value of homes owned by people born before 1956 amounts to €2.72 trillion.

Around €500 billion is concentrated in Rome and Milan, particularly in historic and prime neighbourhoods.

This does not mean that these properties are destined to enter the market automatically.

It means something more interesting: over the coming years, a significant share of Italy’s real estate stock will need to be interpreted anew.

When the owner changes

A property that passes from one generation to the next does not necessarily retain the same function.

Inheritance, in fact, does not simply transfer ownership. It can alter the very nature of the asset.

A large apartment that has remained within the same family estate for decades may become a new residence, be divided into several units, or be repositioned through a redevelopment project.

It is at this stage that a property ceases to be merely inherited wealth and re-enters the market.

Supply that has yet to emerge

The phenomenon takes on particular significance when viewed alongside current market conditions.

In the second quarter of 2026, the Bank of Italy reported that the supply of homes continued to decline, while selling times and the gap between asking and transaction prices remained close to their lowest levels since the survey began.

On the one hand, therefore, there is an enormous stock of property that is set to change hands progressively.

On the other, the current market continues to show a limited availability of properties.

It is this gap that makes the generational transition particularly interesting from an investment perspective as well.

Not because it is possible to predict how many of these homes will be sold, but because part of the stock that is currently locked up could, over time, return to the market, be transformed or repositioned.

The real variable is transformation

The key question, then, is not how many homes will come onto the market: it is what they will become.

This is particularly relevant in prime segments, where a substantial share of the housing stock is located in historic buildings, large apartments and established urban neighbourhoods.

Here, value may depend on the ability to read what already exists correctly.

The generational transition may therefore also become a moment of selection: what is no longer functional is transformed, while what retains value is reinterpreted.

Rome and a changing property stock

In Rome, the phenomenon takes on an even more interesting dimension.

From Parioli to Prati and the central districts, the property stock held by older generations includes a significant number of large homes designed around family and residential models very different from those of today.

It is precisely in these areas that Il Sole 24 Ore identifies a significant concentration of properties expected to change hands over the coming years.

Contemporary demand, however, is different.

It is more international, more selective and often oriented towards properties capable of combining prestige, comfort, efficiency and architectural quality.

The result could be a gradual transformation of the existing stock.

The next cycle begins with what already exists

The Italian residential market is going through a phase of consolidation: in the first half of 2026, Nomisma reported moderate price growth and still-solid housing demand, although increasingly selective.

In this scenario, the next cycle will not depend solely on the number of new homes being built or on the strength of demand.

It may also depend on the ability to bring existing property stock back into circulation.

And it is precisely here, in the transition between what has been inherited and what the market can still transform, that part of the next phase of real estate value creation may lie.